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The Role of Food Prices in Egypt's Revolution

by: Jill Richardson

Thu Feb 03, 2011 at 09:07:14 AM PST


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Slate has an interesting piece out called "Protesting on an Empty Stomach: How the Egyptian economy is fueling unrest in Egypt." I visited Egypt in 1999 and I was floored by the very apparent and horrific poverty there. Everyone wasn't poor. The lovely woman guiding our tour to the Pyramids was doing very well, thank you. But the beggars in the street - and there were tons of them - were as destitute as I had ever seen. According to Slate, neoliberal policies have allowed the country to prosper on paper, but the gains only went to the wealthiest 20%. At the same time, the poor remained poor.

According to Slate, Egypt is the world's top importer of wheat, and food inflation has topped 20% lately. Already, Egyptian families spend some 40% of monthly income on food, so you can imagine the impact of food price inflation.

According to Slate:

The Egyptian government does subsidize bread and other staples for poorer Egyptians, ameliorating the price increase somewhat. But most Egyptians purchase bread beyond what the subsidy allows. And the threat of instability has already pushed food costs higher in the Egyptian capital and elsewhere. Plus, rising food prices have a long history of causing social unrest in the country. In 1977, the state cut subsidies of basic staples, leading to deadly riots. In 2008, when food prices hit their first peak, Egyptians again took to the streets.

Another point of interest is why Americans HAVEN'T noticed rising global food prices:

So why haven't Americans noticed an uptick in costs at the supermarket? Mostly because raw food costs are a smaller proportion of overall food costs for American consumers. When you buy a box of Wheaties, you're paying for packaging, advertising, and processing, as well as the wheat, making the price more insulated from inflation. In addition, U.S. food producers tend to trade in the futures markets to smooth costs-meaning ingredient costs get locked in months or even years in advance.
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On my trip to Bolivia, I met a man who taught (4.00 / 2)
an international Masters program with students from all over the world taking the course online and then doing study abroads together in various countries. He said during the 2008 crisis, EVERYONE was talking about the huge hike in food prices, and the Americans were like "huh?" He personally had to increase wages 3 times (in one year!) for his employees on his farm in Bolivia's Amazon, just to keep up with their food prices.

"I can understand someone from Iowa promoting corn and soy, but we are not feeding the world, we are feeding animals and soft drink companies." - Jim Goodman

Speculation, My Dear (4.00 / 3)
A lot of the rising cost of food commodities is due to speculation. That is, rich people with no actual interest in hedging the prices of their own agricultural products are getting into the commodities markets and driving up prices. They hope to make more money there than by investing in job-creating businesses. (So much for the Republican upper-class tax cuts doing any good!)

Here's a snippet from the Ed Show the other night the provides some history:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41...

-- Andy

************************************************************

SCHULTZ (voice-over):  It started in 1991 with-surprise, surprise -
Goldman Sachs.  Before then, Wall Street speculators played only a minor role in food prices.

The way it worked, food companies and their suppliers, America's farmers, wanted to keep their business stable, even if prices spiked for wheat, corn, or other agricultural commodities.  So, they'd hedge their bets, signing contracts, futures, to lock in prices for some point in the future.  Speculators helped, putting enough money in the system to keep things liquid.

After the Depression, FDR saw that speculators could drive up the price of wheat, corn, whatever, by betting on commodity futures the way Wall Street later bet on dotcoms.  Distorting food prices like that could destroy the very stability future contracts were created to provide.  So, FDR signed into law what are called position limits-limits on how much of the total betting could be done by Wall Street.

And what do you know?  It worked.  For decades, the price of wheat was driven by fundamentals like the weather, and Wall Street couldn't stand it.
In 1991, Goldman Sachs asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC, to give them a waiver on those position limits, so they could bet as much as they wanted.  A CFTC appointee for the first President Brush said sure.  More than a dozen other firms followed suit.

Goldman Sachs even created commodities indexes to simplify the betting and goose casual investors into the casino.  Again, Wall Street followed suit.
Remember the real estate bubble?  Wall Street wanted to hedge all of those bets it made on mortgages.  So, they ramped up their bets on commodities.  And when Wall Street started losing money on subprimes, they bet it on commodities instead.

By 2008, Wall Street had five times more futures contracts in commodities than it did in 2002.  Commodity indexes held about $13 billion in 2003.  By 2008, it was over a quarter trillion.  That's how we got the oil bubble, and record high gas prices added to the cost of shipping food, plus speculators looking for another bubble-and you get a food bubble.

By 2008, the U.N. estimates speculators held 65 percent of corn futures' contracts, 68 percent of soybean, 80 percent of wheat.  By mid-2008, the IMF food price index jumped more than 80 percent in just a year and a half before.

It was the first time in history the proportion of people going hungry worldwide went up.  The number of chronically malnourished people rose by 75 million in 2007, 40 million in 2008.  That's why Egypt had riots back in 2008.

Along with 30 other countries, Italian moms marched against the price of pasta.  Wall Street speculators admitted they were doing it.

In 2006, Merrill Lynch said speculation accounted for 50 percent of the price of commodities, half the price.  In 2008, a Goldman Sachs research paper said, quote, "Without question, increased fund flow into commodities has boosted prices."

2009, even Republican Senator Tom Coburn admits the speculation, quote, "helped to inflate futures prices and thereby disconnect futures from cash prices, impairing farmers' and grain elevator operators' ability to hedge price risk."  Got that?

Even Coburn said there was so much Wall Street money distorting prices that farmers and other guys who actually need commodity futures couldn't use them to keep their companies stable anymore.

We don't notice price hikes so much because most of our food prices come from marketing and packaging.  But in the developing world, the price of food is everything.

And what country imports more wheat than any other?  Egypt-where the price of wheat rose 70 percent last year.

Last summer, Goldman called a report on the role of speculation in food prices, quote, "misleading and blamed other factors."

A lot of reports mentioned that Russia cut off its wheat supply last year.  What they don't tell you is why.  Because futures traders asked them to.


I think I got the clip (4.00 / 2)
Let's see it it cut off Ratigan at the end like I wanted.



[ Parent ]
I wouldn't give Ed a lot of credibility... (4.00 / 2)
he's more of a blow-hard than anything else.

[ Parent ]
unless he's talking about fishing or football (4.00 / 2)
then I'd totally believe he knows what he's talking about :)

OK just kidding. I'm not at all an Ed fan but he's not the first to point fingers at Goldman Sachs here.

"I can understand someone from Iowa promoting corn and soy, but we are not feeding the world, we are feeding animals and soft drink companies." - Jim Goodman


[ Parent ]
That Doesn't Mean He's Wrong (4.00 / 1)
Dennis,

I'm glad to see that you followed up on this valueless ad hominem attack with a another comment that is actually related to the observations and arguments in the story. Let's keep the conversation at a high level!

-- Andy


[ Parent ]
Facts, what facts? (4.00 / 1)
No, really. He isn't the first one to point out the problems with commodity speculation. But he did this story just this week. If there are any facts you want to challenge, well that's OK with me.

[ Parent ]
I think it's simply tragic (4.00 / 2)
That Wall Street and the European market makers are allowed to issue and speculate on food commodity derivatives. I think there's a new economic bubble forming, and that it's commodities. The prices have gone up much more than demand for the actual commodities have -- all because of excessive demand for derivatives driven by so much cheap credit flowing toward Wall Street and big London financial, etc.

Michael Lewis (4.00 / 1)
Michael Lewis, author of The Big Short (a wonderful book!), was on Morning Joe Tuesday and answered the question "why do Wall Street firms make so much money?"

Michael Lewis speaks.


[ Parent ]
It's so easy to blame "speculators"... (4.00 / 2)
but the problem with food prices is plain old supply and demand. Demand is rising in 3rd world countries that weren't hit so hard by the Great Recession and are now charging ahead, in particular India and China, as their people are turning more and more to eating meat. Meanwhile supplies have been damaged by hot weather and droughts in Russia, Australia, etc. and by floods in Australia, Pakistan, etc. World food stocks were not high to begin with, so of course prices are going up.

Or as Paul Krugman put it on his January 29 blog:

"Now, what about food prices?

Not much evidence of hoarding, as far as I can tell. So this is straightforward supply and demand. Demand may be up to some extent because of that emerging-market boom. But if you look at the FAO reports it becomes clear that the key thing for cereals prices is that production is down in advanced countries, largely owing to terrible weather. And yes, it's likely that climate change has played a role."


Not so. (4.00 / 2)
Please read the comments in Marcia's diary, U.S. looks to Monsanto to feed the world.

[ Parent ]
I did and my response is unchanged... (4.00 / 1)
I was responding to comments about "speculation" which Marcia did NOT address. I don't disagree with her comments particularly. But I was addressing the tendency to blame everything on speculators. Sure, they are present, but the rise in food prices is mainly a function of rising demand against food shortages at this point. And no, Americans don't really notice the rise in food prices, not when we spend less than 10% of our income on average on food. Though unemployed Americans might take rather more notice of rising food prices than the average middle-class American.

[ Parent ]
comments (0.00 / 0)
I directed you to the comment thread, not the essay. 2010 wheat prices increased because of market manipulation. The supply "shortage" was entirely artificial, caused by Russia's refusal to release reserve inventory, which refusal was caused by Russia's intention to sustain high grain prices for the benefit of its speculators and agricultural oligarchs, which include both private corporations and state-owned operations. To the extent that artificial grain shortage did exist, which would cause some price increase in the best of circumstances, the observed price increase was greatly exaggerated by speculation and government-corporate machinations in a rigged market, not by supply and demand.

You say "at this point". How did you acquire that idea? We've had supply-demand cycles for centuries. "At this point", price cycles are primarily determined by speculation and other artificial interventions in markets, not by supply and demand interactions.


[ Parent ]
clarification (0.00 / 0)
The last paragraph in the above comment is muddy.

We have lived with supply-demand cycles for centuries, and we know what the concomitant price cycles look like when speculation and market manipulation is controlled or minimized. "At this point", extreme price cycle behavior is primarily determined by speculation and other artificial market interventions.


[ Parent ]
How did you acquire... (0.00 / 0)
Ah, I see. But I wouldn't give Paul Krugman a lot of credibility...

[ Parent ]
I'll give Paul Krugman more credibility... (4.00 / 1)
than I would to anyone on this blog. He is one damn sharp dude.  

[ Parent ]
Krugman (0.00 / 0)
Most people, including me, would agree with you. I was kidding, Dennis.

Nevertheless, in this particular case, Krugman selectively relies on some facts and ignores others.


[ Parent ]
It's so easy to blame "speculators"… because they are the easiest part of the problem to fix (4.00 / 1)
I have a lot of respect for Paul Krugman. But he may not be the only one with answers here. For example, I asked an economics professor I know about speculation having an effect on food prices, and he agreed this was an issue. Not his area of expertise, either, but he does study energy markets, where speculation is rampant and contributed to the run-up to ~$140 / barrel before everything collapsed a few years ago.

Speaking of which, oil prices are rising again, in part due to speculation. Guess how a lot of our food is being produced? By using oil to run machinery, create fertilizer, etc. So that's undoubtedly another source of increasing food costs.

-- Andy


[ Parent ]
I can't help myself... (4.00 / 3)
you wrote "neoliberal policies have allowed the country to prosper on paper, but the gains only went to the wealthiest 20%. At the same time, the poor remained poor."

Well that's doing better than the U.S. where the gains over the past decade went to the top 5% or so. Sheeesh, Egypt has a more equal income distribution than the U.S. Good for Presidents Bush and Obama!! Hooray for them!!


well I don't know (4.00 / 2)
I didn't do any in depth look at their economics. What I saw when I was there was a comfortable but very small "middle class" and an enormous percent who were absolutely destitute. I'm sure there's a wealthy segment in there too. I would assume those who I saw as "middle class" were among that top 20%. The lady who ran our tour was just raking it in, as all of us silly American high school students fell over ourselves to spend $65 each on gold cartouche necklaces.

"I can understand someone from Iowa promoting corn and soy, but we are not feeding the world, we are feeding animals and soft drink companies." - Jim Goodman

[ Parent ]
income distribution (0.00 / 0)
Don't know about when you were there (so last century!) but now Egypt ranks with the Baltic nations, Switzerland, the UK and Bangladesh for income skew. According to the CIA World Factbook, The lowest 10% of households have about 4% of income/consumption, the highest 10% have about 28% of income/consumption. I can well believe that the highest 20% have around 50% of income/consumption. Pretty good seat-of-britches estimate, Jill.

[ Parent ]
poverty line (0.00 / 0)
Listening to Richard Engel from Cairo:

"Fifty percent of the people in this country live at or below the poverty line", however "poverty line" is defined.

(CIA World Factbook 2005 estimate is 20%. Quite a difference.)


[ Parent ]
I was being prehaps too glib... (4.00 / 2)
America's "poor" I would guess are not as poor as Egypt's poor (though if you were to visit some Native American communities you might consider the point arguable). But America's rich are so very, very rich that the income disparity in America is actually greater than it is in Egypt. And our middle class is actually declining, from what I've read. I believe it was Nicholas Kristoff who made the point about inequality a few days ago.

[ Parent ]
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