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The New Coffee Crisis

by: Jill Richardson

Tue Jan 04, 2011 at 12:57:26 PM PST


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Can you believe that HIGH PRICES are a problem for fair trade coffee growers? Just Coffee has posted on what they call "the new coffee crisis" and it is very worthy reading. As you know, I've been hanging out in coffee country myself this past year, and everything Just Coffee says completely jives with what I've heard. They explain it as follows:

For farmer co-ops at this moment, the challenge is more immediate. As local middlemen are willing to buy coffee for prices at or above what FT roasters and importers are willing to pay, they are gaining a foothold on local coffee markets. This inevitably weakens farmer cooperatives as growers sell outside the co-op and co-ops are in turn unable to deliver on coffee contracts with buyers.

To give you some background, recall that part of a Fair Trade agreement means forming a coffee growers cooperative to sell your coffee through. This is, of course, in many ways a good thing for the growers. But back several years ago when coffee prices hit rock bottom and Fair Trade prices were significantly higher than what a coffee grower could otherwise get, there was much more reason for the growers to actually sell through their cooperatives. Now, with high prices and a relatively small fair trade premium, the incentive is smaller.

What the Just Coffee article doesn't mention is that the "middlemen" (coyotes) outside of the fair trade system pay the growers immediately for their beans. You hand over the beans and they hand you cash. A cooperative might not pay the growers until much later. So even if Fair Trade offers a modest premium to the growers, the value of cash in their hand immediately might still lure them to sell to a coyote.

Just Coffee says:

At this point the challenge to the fair traders is one that should be embraced. For too long fair trade marketing has focused almost exclusively on the increased prices paid to farmers. Now we must focus on the other components of the FT philosophy such as pre-financing, long-term relationships, and other forms of cooperation while also staying above the world price. This will most certainly create a challenge for "low bar players" who have maximized their marketing based on the higher prices that they paid to growers, but who also have not generally delved very deeply into the pieces of FT that go beyond their dollars.

They then go on to address yet another challenge - the climate crisis. Strange weather patterns have played a role in the decrease of supply (and devastating losses to growers) and increase in coffee prices lately. Will that continue? Or get worse? To me, the climate crisis is the real problem here. Prices so high that a fair trade program isn't needed is a blessing - if they last. But if the prices are only high because the coffee growers are having their crops wiped out, that's a problem. A big problem. Especially if weather patterns remain like this or get worse.

Jill Richardson :: The New Coffee Crisis
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Coffee prices went up last month (4.00 / 3)
at New Seasons (my local grocery store). I sure noticed that. Also, New Seasons has not been able to get any Bolivian coffee for their house blends. They have a sign up explaining that they just cannot get ahold of any.

The erratic and extreme weather that just about everywhere is experiencing is very worrisome. I once thought we would see the changes coming and make a plan for the change. Sadly, I was wrong. Change is coming much faster than I anticipated, and we are woefully unprepared. I expect we'll see a shocking amount of agricultural dislocation and upheaval in the not at all distant future.

Things are well on their way to being very bad. Current food crises will look almost benign by comparison to what is just down the road. And no country will be able to avoid the chaos.

God (or whom or what ever) help us.


Bolivian coffee (4.00 / 2)
that would be from Yungas, the area where I was unable to visit when I was there because of the coca growers road blockade. I wonder if the problem was related to the blockade, or if it was related to the VERY strange weather Bolivia's experienced this year.  

"I can understand someone from Iowa promoting corn and soy, but we are not feeding the world, we are feeding animals and soft drink companies." - Jim Goodman

[ Parent ]
I think anyone growing long range crops (4.00 / 3)
where you're locked into one type of production for years or decades (coffee, grapes, any orchard crop, any forestry crop) has to have nerves of steel. It's not just climate (which will change and continue to change, not just now, but has in the past and will continue into the future), but markets and prices.

I can't imagine investing years into a block of crops before I can start harvesting. Hell, I don't even like a 6 month turn over in a crop. I like short season agile crops. I can change my cropping shedule on a month by month schedule. I'm happier predicting markets and local climate on that timeline than 5 or 10 years from now.

Normal people scare me.... But not as much as I scare them.


[ Parent ]
True (4.00 / 2)
but often in the coffee areas they grow other things within the coffee trees to provide a shade cover and to feed themselves and/or bring in some cash, and also there might not be a market for stuff other than coffee - at least, not an international one and the processing and transport facilities nearby that they could use to bring their crop to market.

"I can understand someone from Iowa promoting corn and soy, but we are not feeding the world, we are feeding animals and soft drink companies." - Jim Goodman

[ Parent ]
prices (4.00 / 2)
Wow. I had no idea. According to a CNNMoney.com article from September, the New York contract for December delivery settled at $1.95 on September 9, 2010, and look at that graph! Note, however, that Fair Trade pricing is for beans at the co-op, not for beans delivered to New York. Also, the graph appears to be for all Arabica generalized - no distinction for Kenya, Columbia, etc. (Robusta (Vietnamese coffee in Folger's etc.) still is under a dollar.)

Yesterday, the New York contract for March delivery settled at $2.35.

What Just Coffee writes about crop loss and supply decline is persuasive and I do not dispute it. Nevertheless, perhaps something broader is happening also. Most commodities are high and near peak - gold, copper, oil, cocoa, juices, grains - how much of this is rank speculative profiteering?

Concerning climate change, we are now seeing articles saying that not only is Assam tea production down, quality is declining. I wonder if this will be repeated for coffee.

Indian tea growers lament climate change

(Although Assam production declined, India's tea production is up about 4% from a year ago.)


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