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Lincoln looking vulnerable in 2010

by: desmoinesdem

Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 14:41:10 PM PDT


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The latest Rasmussen poll from Arkansas shows Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Blanche Lincoln trailing four potential Republican challengers. Rasmussen polls tend to skew a bit towards Republican candidates, so take this with a grain of salt.

On the other hand, this poll was in the field before yesterday's Senate Finance Committee hearing on the health care bill, during which Lincoln was one of three Democrats who refused to back both public health insurance option amendments. That probably won't go over well in Arkansas, where a strong majority of voters support "creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans."

Lincoln's re-election campaign will be generously financed by corporate interests; she has already pulled in a lot of money from healthcare industry. Big agribusiness will be there for her as well, and probably Wal-Mart and the Chamber of Commerce too, since Lincoln now opposes the Employee Free Choice Act (after voting for that pro-labor bill in 2007, when she knew President Bush would never sign it).

Corporate money could get Lincoln re-elected, but if the economy continues to be weak and the Democratic base is uninspired to lift a finger to help her, she could have a very tough road. MoveOn is already running ads against Lincoln.

I don't normally post here about campaigns and elections, but I thought the La Vida Locavore community would want to know that there's a very real chance the Senate Agriculture Committee will be choosing a new chair (Debbie Stabenow?) in early 2011.

desmoinesdem :: Lincoln looking vulnerable in 2010
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FYI (4.00 / 1)
There's a Green running against her that people are getting excited about.  Without a Republican in the race, in 2008 the Green candidate for Senate got 21% of the vote (also without spending any money).  His name is John Gray and he's the mayor of Greenland, Arkansas and a nuclear physicist who turned against nuclear energy.

Vote for yourself at www.ni4d.us!

John Gray (4.00 / 1)
John Gray announces campaign for U.S. Senator

From a comment  that article,

We are a populist state with 95 percent of us registered as independent voters that don't vote party lines. We vote the person and the issue.

Could that be true? Sounds strange. I searched for Arkansas voter registration by party, unsuccessfully.

Turns out, on the Arkansas voter registration form, registrants may specify party affiliation if they wish, but it's optional. There is a write-in blank, no check boxes. I gather that the commenter really means that 95% of Arkansas registrants did not bother to specify a party affiliation.

This raises the question, how do the party primaries work? Must be open primaries, I guess, but I didn't research that.


[ Parent ]
Keep in mind (4.00 / 1)
Throughout the nation, there are more independents than there are members of either party.  I think Dems have about 30-35%, Republicans have about 20-25%, and independents are about 40%.

So even though he might be manipulating the statistics specific to Arkansas, his point could remain the same with different numbers.

Vote for yourself at www.ni4d.us!


[ Parent ]
The Green (Gray) could get Union backing (4.00 / 3)
if the PO goes south. Michael Moore might also back a Green. He's making some noise also about those voting against a PO. I would love to see the politicians start getting some outside of the party pressure. People are getting damn sick and tired of getting sold out.

[ Parent ]
amen sister (4.00 / 2)
and I'm one of them. I'm active in local Dem politics here in PA. If we don't get real health care reform that includes a public option, I say we start thinking about a new political party with Dr Howard Dean as head...

[ Parent ]
There's a new national progressive 3rd party (4.00 / 1)
being organized right now.  It's probably going to be called the Progressive Party, although it might depend on the state.  The Progressive Party of Vermont (the most successful third party in the nation) and the Peace and Freedom Party in California are leading this effort, mostly by getting together existing progressive statewide third parties, including the Oregon Progressive Party (recently changed its name to "Progressive"), the Open Progressive Party in Minnesota, and possibly the Working Families Party (which has had a lot of success by working with Democrats, mostly in New York).

Vote for yourself at www.ni4d.us!

[ Parent ]
I know you can't vote yet...but are you a Green? (4.00 / 2)


[ Parent ]
Kind of (4.00 / 1)
I'm just really interested in third parties and think they don't have a fair chance at success, no matter what the ideology.  I think I'll register as a Democrat, only so I can vote in the Democratic primaries here in PA, but if there were open primaries I would be an independent.  The only reason I support the Greens is that they're the biggest progressive party in the nation right now.  If there was another progressive party, I'd support them, too.

Vote for yourself at www.ni4d.us!

[ Parent ]
Stabenow...my new hero (4.00 / 2)
I watched as she gave it real good to the asshole Kyl who said he didn't need maternal health care.

on  my current shir list..updated daily

B Lincoln
M Baucus
K Conrad
C Grassley


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