Senate Prospects for 2010

regarding Massachusetts (4.00 / 2)

I thought Martha Coakley was way ahead of Capuano in the Democratic primary poll I saw.

Chris Bowers' most recent Senate forecast from Open Left is here. He is forecasting a net Republican gain of 2-3 seats, with lots of caveats.

Realistically, the best-case scenario for Democrats is probably no change unless the economy gets a whole lot better than I think it's going to be a year from now.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Sep 20, 2009 at 23:55:17 PM UTC

regarding Grassley (4.00 / 2)

I think he would win even if Vilsack had run against him, which obviously he won't. We don't have a top tier candidate in that race. Holding Grassley to below 60 percent would be a big achievement.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 00:07:32 AM UTC

The answer to that, of course... (4.00 / 1)

...is "with 'friends' like Blanche Lincoln, who needs...", etc.  There isn't much (if any) daylight between Lincoln or one of the knuckledraggers, sadly.

Besides, there's absolutely no way the Republicans will be in control of the Senate anytime before 2013, and that's only if they have a massive sweep in 2012.  I can't imagine that as likely, although I'm gonna say 2012 does favor them in that the map is friendly to them, and it'll be a low turnout presidential year.  I can't imagine anybody getting excited about voting for anybody in 2012, especially on the R side.  But low turnout does favor them, historically.

A couple things re: 2010 -

New York - Gillibrand will probably win unless Giuliani runs

Hamlet Giuliani reminds me of Christie Whitman in NJ in the 2002 Senate Race.  She was encouraged to run after The Torch flamed out, and the media made such a frenzy about the potential big name jumping in... that they lost sight of the fact that Whitman never got more than 49% in an election in NJ; and especially after her cover-up at EPA of air quality in Lower Manhattan after September 11, the only thing in NJ that Whitman should have "run for" was the Pennsylvania border.

Anyways, Rudy's done.  Fortunately for everybody.

Nice analysis overall, I'd say we lose one seat this year.  Right now I gotta say everything's a wash besides NH (goes D), and AR (yeah, I'm thinking she's done) and NV (yeah, him too in another embarrassment - now can we stop picking "leaders" from states where they're likely to be swiftboated?) to go R.

Of course, we're still 14 months out...

"The essence of the independent mind lies not in what it thinks, but in how it thinks." - Christopher Hitchens

---

by: JayinPortland @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 01:51:17 AM UTC

I've never understood this phylosophy (4.00 / 1)

Blanche Lincoln might be awful, but she's a Democrat

Harold says the same thing - only from a republican point of view. Kind of like saying I'll hire a poor quality white guy before I'd hire the most qualified black guy.

Instead of hiring people who are qualified, we go on party membership even if they are a crappy worker. In my opinion, it's why our country is so screwed up.

Regarding locavores as elitists - explain to me how supporting local business is elitist....

---

by: Joanne Rigutto @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 11:56:28 AM UTC

Funny... (0.00 / 0)

I agree totally with that sentiment these days, and my background is that of an old school Democratic campaign hack.

:)

Ronnie RayGun and Tom "Let's Bankrupt New Jersey!" Kean made me a Democrat from a young age; yet amazingly enough, the "Democrats" over the past few years have turned me into an apathetic liberal with an independent streak, wishing that Bob LaFollette would come back to the Senate and smack those sorry little hacks around and tell them to work for the American people again...

"The essence of the independent mind lies not in what it thinks, but in how it thinks." - Christopher Hitchens

---

by: JayinPortland @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 13:41:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm in PA (4.00 / 1)

and cannot stand Specter. And don't trust him.

Its going to be an interesting primary. Specter will get all the $$$ and Obama. Sestak will have an uphill battle not the least of which will be raising $$$$.

Me..I won't lift a finger to help Specter in any way.

---

by: LeeN @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 15:17:17 PM UTC

Wishing... (0.00 / 0)

youze could have someone decent to vote and work for there this year, too.

I wouldn't do shit for that little slime Specter, either.  He realized his days in one party were numbered, so he jumped to the other.  Nice.

Bah.

Isn't there anybody decent to run against him this year?  A mayor, maybe?  Bob Brady?  Chaka Fattah?  A Ravenstahl?

"The essence of the independent mind lies not in what it thinks, but in how it thinks." - Christopher Hitchens

---

by: JayinPortland @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 15:35:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How does Arkansas feel about that? (0.00 / 0)

Of course I agree that Lincoln will be a major obstacle on Senate Ag. As she demonstrated during the last farm bill debate, you don't need to be a Republican to threaten a filibuster on behalf of Big Ag.

But while our national agriculture priorities would clearly be better with her gone, how would our fellow activists in Arkansas feel with a Republican in her seat? While she is terrible on ag, she is pretty good on hunger, and halfway decent on other traditionally Democrat social welfare issues.

I completely understand your motivation in going after her, but look at it from an Arkansan's perspective. How would you feel if an anti-poverty activist from AR swept into California threatening to depose one of your Democrat Senators because she wasn't strong on their issue?

---

by: jcdwyer @ Tue Sep 22, 2009 at 14:37:33 PM UTC